DECISION 2016: Can Chicago be beaten in their Olympic bid?

SOMETIMES elections are won just by acting like winners - and Chicago's bid team have a certain swagger here in Copenhagen.

PR BLITZ: Chicago's bid has all the profile in Copenhagen - but are Rio timing their run to perfection?

Their supporters have been running and cycling all over town in bright Orange sweatshirts and their parties have been the hottest tickets around.

At the Admiral Hotel last night, Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and bid leader Patrick Ryan whipped up the crowd into a flag-waving frenzy.

If there had been ticker tape and balloons you'd be forgiven for thinking it was the New England primary.

The bookmakers have shortened the odds on a Chicago victory but there is a feeling here that this election is no foregone conclusion.  Watch Rio - they are finishing with a kick.

So can long-time frontrunners Chicago be beaten?

Positives

It may not be quite so fashionable around the world to love all things Stars and Stripes but the Olympics without the United States simply wouldn't work.

Reality dictates and prudence demands that the success of the Olympics is now measured in cash and audience share.

American broadcaster NBC paid more than two billion dollars for the rights to the forthcoming Winter Olympics in Vancouver and London 2012.

And such investment requires a healthy return - namely big audiences and advertising revenue.

NBC Sports vice-president, Alex Gilady, is also an IOC member and has made no secret that he wants the Games being staged in US primetime.

And if you doubt NBC's influence, remember how they got swimming finals shifted to the morning in Beijing last year.

TV CASH: American broadcaster NBC is one of the biggest contributors to IOC finances - paying $2 billion for their last set of rights, which covered 2010 and 2012 (Getty Images)

In addition to being the home of the IOC's most influential broadcast partner, most of the worldwide Olympic partners are headquartered in the USA.

It was the Los Angeles Games in 1984 that first truly commercialised the Olympics and while Atlanta 12 years later took it to unwanted extremes, American dollars have transformed the Games for the better in the last three decades.

But it is not just a case of show me the money.

Barack Obama's decision to fly to Copenhagen was a major boost for Chicago's bid team - although IOC members are a funny bunch and won't want their big decision overshadowed.

Negatives

IOC rules state local or national government have to secure the financial solvency of any successful bid but such guarantees are prevented by law in the USA.

As such a successful Chicago bid will be entirely privately funded - with the budget set at $3.8 billion with a $450 million contingency - making them cheaper than London 2012.

However, outside this budget, City officials will fund a new stadium, velodrome and aquatics centre, in addition to an Olympic Village on the site of a closed hospital - a commitment that was only signed off a few weeks ago.

There has also been vocal local opposition to the Games - highly-mobilised activists have been quick to make their voices heard, with websites such as www.nogameschicago.com making their point in no uncertain terms.

LOCAL OPPOSITION: Chicago residents have not all welcomed the bid for the 2016 Olympics

To counter this, Chicago 2016 released a Zogby poll this week which they claimed underlined their bid had widespread support both locally and nationally.

SWOT analysis

Strength - Money talks, Weakness - Funding concerns, Opportunities - Cashing in on the Obama factor and Threats - Frontrunners have not won recent host city elections and Rio is brimming with confidence.

* Follow extensive coverage of the 121st IOC Session in Copenhagen, with breaking news reports and analysis from Sportsbeat's James Toney and Gerard Meagher in Copenhagen - www.morethanthegames.co.uk/121st-ioc-session

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