DECISION 2016: Post-mortem starts as Chicago flunk in 2016 Olympic vote

CHICAGO has long been known as the Second City but the fourth city ­behind Tokyo, Madrid and Rio?

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However, if you ever needed proof that there are strange and unfathomable forces at work in the election of an Olympic host city, just remember Copenhagen.

Rio's bid had been consistently criticised by their IOC's own evaluation commission. On paper many of its elements would probably rank it weakest of the four shortlisted cities.

Chicago was meant to have sealed this deal when American President Barack Obama confirmed he'd come to Denmark with his trademark message of change and progress.

The International Olympic Committee listened but something must have been lost in translation.

The most powerful man in the world didn't even leave with silver or bronze, and fourth in a four horse race won't merit much of a mention in his memoirs.

Rio campaigned with the simple message, ­ ‘it's our turn'.  And, as Obama knows, sometimes the simplest messages are the best.

South America had never staged the Games; it was an imbalance that insulted 400 million men and women in continent crazy for sports.

Earlier this month, New Yorker magazine ran an in-depth and disturbing article entitled ‘Gangs of Rio'.

‘Rio is the top-ranked city in the world for ‘violent international deaths, with just under five thousand murders last year, at least half of which were drug-gang related,' they wrote.

The publication of such an article, on the eve of the IOC Session, was well timed and Rio ­ whose communication strategy was designed by Mike Lee, a mastermind of London¹s 2012 triumph ­ has spent the week fighting back.

But IOC members don't venture into the parts of towns where they'll likely be gunned down in a drive-by.

TO THE VICTOR, THE GAMES: Rio supporters celebrate on the famous Copacabana beach following the 2016 Olympic host city announcement in Copenhagen

Rio's pleas for equality resonated. They didn't have fancy videos or clever props, just a lot of pledges, promises and, perhaps most importantly, passion.

Their team deserve credit, from bid leader Carlos Nuzman to President Lula, probably the world's most popular politician at present.

World leaders are now key to the success of any Olympic bid -­ witness Tony Blair's lobbying for London, Vladimir Putin's campaign for Sochi and now Lula's powerful advocacy of Rio.

If Chicago were guilty of anything it was perhaps over confidence but when you're odds-on favourites and long-established frontrunners, it's hard to escape looking like winners.

But International Olympic Committee members like to be courted, they count among their number billionaire businessmen and members of the world's most famous royal families.

Some - though clearly not many - may have been impressed by Obama's arrival but they wanted more than just a flying visit and 25-minute meet and greet in the lobby of a soulless conference centre.

Lula has been courting their vote for months, he knows their names, they like him and their respect his long-time commitment to Rio's campaign.

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Obama, despite his best intentions and a typically well-crafted speech - made many feel they were just another stop on his crowded itinerary.

He was back on Air Force One and heading east to Washington before they'd finished their lunch.

But no one could have predicted just how badly Chicago flunked, to borrow a phrase, popular across the Pond, their rivals opened a can of ‘whoop-ass' right over their heads.

To muster just 18 votes means they did worse than New York, whose bid was totally flawed, in Singapore four years ago.

Blame will be attributed to many things from the war in Iraq to a hard-hitting question from Pakistan's IOC member but Chicago's was a good bid, backed by a slick and professional campaign, well-run by chief executive Patrick Ryan.

Reality demands and prudence dictates that the success of the Olympics is now measured in cold hard cash - and the IOC's currency of choice is not the Swiss Franc but the US dollar, although they are keen to claim that dependency is decreasing.

Their most powerful broadcast partner is American network NBC, who paid $2 billion to screen the forthcoming Vancouver and London Games.

The majority of the $50m worldwide sponsors, who make up over 50 percent of the IOC's revenues, are headquartered in the USA and the IOC has been rowing with the United States Olympic Committee over a controversial revenue share deal that has angered many other national Olympic committees.

At present the USOC receives nearly 13 percent of Olympic television rights fees and 20 percent of global marketing revenues - because of the involvement of US companies - in an open-ended contract.

Some IOC members, most international sports federations and nearly every other national Olympic committee has complained bitterly about this arrangement, claiming the USA gets as much as the all the other countries put together.

So, in a strange dichotomy, it seems, as long as America continues to pay and profit from the Games, it won't get to stage them.

However, Rio's victory should be celebrated. It pushes the Olympics southwards and through its final frontier, although the next seven years could be fraught with many worries and difficulties as Brazil -­ also host of the 2014 Fifa World Cup - struggles with the complexities of staging the world's two biggest sporting events in the space of 24 months.

But right now the bid team deserve to enjoy their party, safe in the knowledge they won't spending so much time on the beaches they raved about in the next seven years.

But what next for Lula?

"After the 2016 Games we will start bidding for the Winter Olympics," he said.

He may joke but last week it snowed in Rio Grande do Sul for the first time in years.

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