Berlin medal chances look as bleak as the British summer
AND so all roads lead from Rome towards Berlin, admittedly via a no-frills flight out of Stansted.
FLYING THE FLAG: Christine Ohuruogu has seen her preparations for Berlin stalled by niggling injuries (Getty Images)
However, unlike our swimming team, when it comes to British track and field success, it's wise to travel more in hope than expectation.
To his credit UK Athletics head coach Charles van Commenee is doing his best to set an exacting standard, targeting five medals - the same amount won two years ago in Osaka.
But either he's blinded by optimism or he's playing a very clever but potentially embarrassing mind game with a team whose injury-ravaged bodies appear as fragile as their confidence.
When the World Championships last visited Germany, Stuttgart playing host in 1993, it was a week that set the golden standard for British athletics.
One year after the Barcelona Olympics and Linford Christie and Sally Gunnell both added the world titles to their resume while Colin Jackson ran an incredible 12.91 seconds to claim the 110m hurdles gold.
John Regis and Tony Jarrett both won silvers and then joined Christie and Jackson to also finish second in the sprint relay.
There was also success in field events - Steve Smith, Jonathan Edwards and Mick Hill winning bronze in the high jump, triple jump and javelin respectively, while the women's 4x400m quartet also came third.
SHINING STAR: Great Britain's Jess Ennis is ranked first in the world in heptathlon this season (Getty Images)
How times have changed.
Only one member of the almost 60-strong British team is currently ranked in the world's top three for their event - hepathlete Jess Ennis set a world leading 6587 points score earlier this season.
Two of Britain's four Beijing medallists - Germaine Mason and Natasha Danvers - are absent through injury.
In addition, reigning world and Olympic 400m champion Christine Ohuruogu is having a year to forget.
Niggling injuries haven't helped and her season's best ranks her only 25th in the world, while triple jumper Phillips Idowu, an Olympic silver medallist, is placed fifth.
Dwain Chambers might have impressed at the European Indoor Championships but his 'Project Bolt' ambition remains a wishful fantasy that he'd be wise to forget for fear of further embarrassment.
Mo Farah, another to star in Turin, remains the best European in a 5000m event dominated by Kenya and Ethiopia.
Kate Dennison may have broken the national pole vault record for fun this summer but her 4.58 metre personal best may not be good enough to make the final at the Olympic Stadium.
Some Beijing finalists have even failed to make the squad - high jumpers Tom Parsons and Martyn Bernard missing out while Jeanette Kwakye, sixth in the women's 100m at the Bird's Nest, only travels as part of the relay team.
Paula Radcliffe's fitness is far from proven while marathon rival Mara Yamauchi - second in this year's London Marathon - has already withdrawn.
In addition to Ohuruogu's well-publicised problems, there are fitness concerns for world 400m silver medallist Nicola Sanders, 1500m hope Lisa Dobriskey and javelin thrower Goldie Sayers - the latter two both fourth in Beijing but, on the evidence of this season, not favourites for an upgrade.
DOUBT: Paula Radcliffe won the world marathon title four years ago but remains a major doubt for Berlin (Getty Images)
In the endurance events, Britain barely musters a team - in itself a tragedy worthier of lengthier comment.
They've entered no-one in the men's 10,000m or the women's 5,000m and 10,000m. And if Radcliffe fails to make the startline, there won't be a single British vest in the marathons.
Eight years ago, one year after Sydney, Great Britain mustered just two medals at the World Championships in Edmonton - their worst-ever return in the 11 editions of the event.
It's hard to see where Van Commenee's nap hand is coming from, other than a reliance of relays and praying for some good fortune.
The 2012 countdown is ticking louder and louder and it should be deafening for the man charged with reviving British athletics fortunes.
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Comments
RE: British medal chances
"As concerns Nicola Sanders and Lisa Dobriskey there are no fitness concerns unless you haven't watched much action of late"
Didn't think much of Dobriskey in Cystal Palace, and the field Sanders beat was fairly miserable.
First, Nicola Sanders beat a
First, Nicola Sanders beat a decent field in what was very windy conditions at the Palace, having claimed all her three races since coming back from injury. She was in some 50.7-50.8 shape at the time mainly off strength still, with the speedwork coming in during the weeks building up to Berlin. She was in exactly the same position two years ago and she's so much stronger this season.
Lisa Dobriskey coped fabulously in her first real competitive race since returning from injury and finished narrowly off a couple of top American girls, in particular Ann Willard (keep that name in mind come Berlin), while followed up with a 4:02.28 in a world class field in Monaco.
British medal chances
I beg to differ, Tony, on your doom and gloom assessment of the British team's medal chances.
Yes, there are some heavy casualties on the way, along with some unknown quantities like Paula Radcliffe, but you tend to overlook or ignore major factors that influence the overall performance of a team.
First, there is no fragile confidence within the British athletes as they have shown so many times over the last couple of years, and I really wonder where did you sense that.
Rankings hardly matter when it comes to the crunch as so many times proven before, further a few weeks can see large improvements on the part of athletes of the calibre of Christine Ohuruogu, Nicola Sanders or Paula Radcliffe - suffice to say that the latter beat a world class field in New York two years ago on roughly ten weeks marathon training.
Phillips Idowu may be lying fifth currently in the world lists but only within a few cm of anyone before him, further he has beaten them time and again this season.
Paula Radcliffe would have withdrawn if she wasn't feeling fit enough to challenge so you'd better not write her off, it would be a huge mistake on your part.
As concerns Nicola Sanders and Lisa Dobriskey there are no fitness concerns unless you haven't watched much action of late, both have been running well lately and with the speedwork put in over the last three weeks expect them to be slipping through the gears.
I personally think that you're going to review this article of yours over and over again in the following weeks...
Re: British medal chances
I really hope you are right Costas and I’ll certainly pen a full mea culpa if the next few days prove so.
In a press box full of negativity, I'm usually the one clinging to the hope that all will be alright on the night.
However, this year I’m not heading to Berlin with the same blind faith.
Sanders is showing encouraging signs of a return to form but has a long way to go to close down her rivals.
She is talking down her chances – not unusual for an athlete – but her 51.21 season’s best is still a full second off the world’s top ten.
Dobriskey looked good at Crystal Palace and even better in Monaco - certainly justifying her selection.
She might benefit from running through the rounds but I still don’t think she’ll improve on last year’s Beijing performance.
I acknowledge the world rankings are nothing but a guide come the major championships – Danvers and Mason were no-where near the top three before Beijing for example and Ohuruogu is a proven championship performer.
However, it’s not just that Ennis is the only Brit in the top three of their respective top lists – Idowu is the only other UK athlete in the top ten.
And finally Paula. People were saying something very similar about her before last year’s Olympics – and she finished 23rd.
British medal chances
Nicola Sanders's 51.21 was in windy conditions in beating a very good field including Natasha Hastings, as have been all her latest races. I've watched all her races and she's so strong over the last 60m, her transition round the top bend superb. Nicola has shown again in the past she can work wonders on a few weeks' speedwork and I'm confident she will be firing on all cylinders in Berlin.
Paula Radcliffe did most of her curtailed training last year on cross-country and treadmills, let alone she made a big mistake of doing a test only days before the women's marathon. But the Olympics come only once in four years and took her chances. She has won the world title in the past so I don't think she would be involved in this one unless she was feeling competitive and in good enough form to claim it. Her training background is of such quality that she can run world class times off several weeks training...
Sanders
Loving your confidence Costas. But hasn't Sanya Richards run sub 50 seconds in the pissing rain this season?
Nicola Sanders
Sanya Richards was always going to be the big favourite for gold while she shows to have learnt to disersify and suit her tactics to the requirements of a race, more patient as well.
Yet, Sanya will have to face her own nemesis of the behcets syndrome she carries, taking longer than normal to recover between races, as well as the pressure to deliver having not yet won a major title...
Any views now Costas?
Any views now Costas?
Too late
Far too late for anything to be done by 2012, even 2016. There's is some talent out there but you can't just rely on that - the system needs stripping down from top to bottom ala cycling and rowing.
Response
UKA is too big and cumbersome to be adaptable like rowing or cycling or swimming. Athletics is also a much bigger sport, so the comparison is not fair.
Remember there are over 200 countries competing at the worlds and as many as 40 of those nations will medal. At the world rowing maybe only ten nations will share out the medals. Athletics is a truly global sport, its much harder to dominate than cycling or rowing - don't compare them its not right. I agree that things are bad but the changes need to be the right ones for the sport.
Downbeat athletics fan
Ennis will medal and one of the relay teams - otherwise I can't see where they are coming form. What a sad state of affairs for Britain's premier Olympic sport. How can we really stage a successful Olympics when the athletics events - the blue riband event - will be such a disappointment. We've wasted a heritage in the sport and it's too late to do anything now.
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